Each post documents a thesis: what we see, why we see it that way, and what would have to happen for us to change our mind.
RSI 87. Price 0.06% from the 52-week high. 1-month ETF flows just turned negative for the first time in months. And 33.7% of the index sits in seven stocks whose Q1 reports are the next two weeks. The cleanest 'be careful here' setup we've seen in the file in months.
Forward P/E of 150x. FCF of $5B against $25B of guided capex. Inventory growing by 50K units in one quarter. And still — Cybercab production starting, robotaxi paid miles doubling, and Optimus moving to manufacturing. How we think about that contradiction.
March printed the largest Western gold-ETF outflow on record. Q1 saw the largest Asian inflow on record. Total holdings hit a fresh all-time high. Sell-side targets stayed bullish. Why the consolidation looks more like a handoff than a top.
12 billion in cumulative ETF inflows. 200 million transactions in a quarter. And yet — mainnet fees collapsed, ETH supply turned slightly inflationary, and the 'ultra-sound money' thesis is broken. How we hold both truths at once.
One email every time we publish a new thesis. No spam, no webinar invites — just the research, direct.